动车组进站过程精准停车控制方法研究

通过分析高速动车组进站停车过程中制动力与速度之间的关系,构建动车组多质点动力学模型。由于制动停车后期产生空气制动力过程给系统带来延时影响,引入Smith预估器,采用基于RBF(Radial Basis Function)神经网络的PID控制策略与Smith预估器相结合,实现制动过程中对给定速度的跟踪控制。仿真分析表明:该混合控制器控制的列车速度与设定速度的误差小于±1 km/h,停车误差小于±0.3 m,可满足进站制动停车的要求。     

基于区间直觉模糊数的得分函数与精确函数及其应用

在模糊决策理论中，区间直觉模糊数的排序是一个非常重要的理论问题.运用得分函数和精确函数对区间直觉模糊数进行有效排序的关键是得分函数和精确函数的科学构建.本文基于得分函数和精确函数的内涵，运用概率论全概率公式思想提出了新的得分函数和精确函数，并证明了其公理化的性质.通过大量的实际数据测算与比较分析，验证了本文提出的得分函数和精确函数的科学性，从而在对区间直觉模糊数排序时更有效、更准确.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

改进的非参数 Ce ns us 变换立体匹配算法

针对多数立体匹配算法的相似性测度都建立在像素灰度特性基础上, 无法彻底消除匹配差异性, 易出现歧异性的问题, 提出一种改进的非参数Census变换匹配算法. 该算法通过在传统非参数Census匹配过程中增加局部纹理反差值测度, 引入图像纹理度量的方向性, 使中心像素灰度值不再是唯一决定因素, 改进了匹配模版, 从而有效解决了传统匹配算法的歧异性问题. 实验结果表明, 改进算法是一种有效、 合理的立体匹配方法, 提高了稠密匹配精度.     

基于成像算子优化的微震逆时定位方法

针对目前微震逆时定位成像存在的问题,提出一种优化后的成像算子,对模型数据进行抗噪性、误差速度以及检波器分布和数量进行测试,并提出采用峰度值作为定位成像结果的评价标准。结果表明,优化后的成像条件在定位能量聚焦程度和成像分辨率上都得到了提升,对含速度误差和含噪微震数据都有较好的成像结果,并且对检波器的分布和数量有较好的适应性,取得了较为理想的定位效果。     

基于无条件分位回归的民营上市公司高管薪酬问题研究

高级管理人员的薪酬作为现代企业委托代理关系中的核心问题一直是社会的焦点.本文以我国民营上市公司为样本,首先研究了公司规模、每股收益、营业收入、流动负债和高管持股比例作用于高管薪酬不同分位点处的条件分位偏效应,结果表明它们在不同分位水平下的影响各异;然后为了获得这些因素的一般边际影响,利用无条件分位回归分析了它们的无条件分位偏效应,结果指出公司规模、每股收益和营业收入与各个分位水平的高管薪酬呈不同程度的正相关而流动负债则为负相关,高管持股比例与低分位水平的高管薪酬正相关而对中高分位水平的影响不显著;最后对相关结果进行了对比,发现每个影响因素的条件和无条件分位偏效应有所区别,并且无条件分位偏效应的解释意义更具有现实价值.     

Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts

By linking measures of forecast accuracy as well as testing procedures with regard to forecast rationality this paper investigates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar and, hence, for four different currency regimes. The rationality of the exchange rate predictions is initially assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency which indicate that the investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. As one major contribution of this paper, it is subsequently shown that these results are not consistent with an alternative, less restrictive, measure of rationality. Investigating the order of integration of the time series as well as cointegrating relationships, this empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are in fact rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are rather mediocre, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one additional important and novel evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts.     

工业机器人绝对定位误差补偿技术研究进展

 针对航空制造业中工业机器人存在实际位姿与理论位姿偏差的问题，分析了工业机器人绝对定位误差来源，解析其对飞机零部件连接性能产生的影响，在工业机器人绝对定位误差补偿原理和主要步骤分析基础上，阐述运动学建模、位姿测量、运动学参数误差辨识以及误差补偿等关键步骤对工业机器人绝对定位误差补偿的作用及重要性，对比分析了国内外学者在该步骤中涉及的主流算法和技术，归纳总结各步骤中存在的问题和可能的解决方案，探讨了工业机器人离线与在线误差补偿技术中的不足之处，指出工业机器人绝对定位误差补偿技术的发展趋势。     

基于SHELL单元模型的对薄壁件铣削仿真优化分析

为了实现对薄壁框架零件较高精度的铣削加工,通过基于SHELL单元所组成的有限元模型,在充分提高分析效率的基础上,分析了落刀位置、零件几何尺寸以及切削用量在加工过程中对零件变形的影响,最终对零件的不同切削参数下的变形量进行了分析.最终可以得出结论:采用基于SHELL单元的有限元模型在提高分析效率的基础上,可以对薄壁件的加工过程进行较为系统的优化最终以达到提高薄壁件加工精度和加工效率的目的.